Well, the Ukies have crossed the Dneiper this weekend and established a beachhead across from Kherson. Some are saying this is the commencement of the expected Spring offensive. Perhaps,...or it could be a feint. It also might be only part of the offensive.
My personal speculation (and that's all it is) is that the key objective is two-fold; seizing Melitopol, and cutting off Crimea. That COULD be achieved via a 2-pronged pincer move storming across from the new beachhead and also down from Kamianske, south of Zaporezhia, both linking up in Melitopol. Why? Because Russia is overly dependent on railway for their logistics. Melitopol is the junction between Crimea and the rest of Russian held territory to the east. Once Melitopol is taken, supply from the east is blocked. Crimea then has only the Kerch Straight bridge for a rail route of supply. That could get taken out again, and if so, all Russian forces west of Melitopol would begin to starve not only of food, but everything. Resupply by sea and air would not be able to keep up. Rather than attempt to destroy the Russians head on, Ukraine could sit back and regroup while the 1.5 million cut-off Russians suffer a debilitating starvation siege.
By the end of May, things should be clear what the plan is.
