So there have been plenty of folks saying for a while now that at some point Putin will be removed over his failures. Partly that is an educated guess based on history of previous buttheads, and partly (mostly) hopeful/wishful thinking. And although it hasn't happened (yet), the worse things get for Russia as time goes on, the more likely that becomes.
We all remember last year when Pregozhin, who owned and led the Wagner PMC, decided it was time for such a change and started marching his forces back towards Moscow. It was mostly a bluff, sorta, trying to inspire others to join in and actually stage a coup. When that didn't happen, he backed down, and was later killed for his lack of loyalty.
Wagner was/is not the only private military company in Russia. Paladin is another, owned and run by another psychopath named Georgy Zakrevsky. And unlike Prigozhin, who had previously been a career criminal and then a caterer and THEN an owner of a mercenary outfit,...Zakrevsky is a professional killer and always has been,...formerly a Soviet soldier, then KGB, earned a law degree and now runs Paladin. His company has served in Congo, Ecuador and Lebanon.
Given Zakrevsky’s past record and current credentials, the last thing one would expect such a cutthroat to do would be to turn against Russia’s cutthroat par excellence, the Great Putin. The pair should be, and presumably once were, natural allies. For someone like Zakrevsky to criticize Putin publicly is thus no small potatoes. But, as I allude to in that last sentence, a few days ago, Zakrevsky effectively called on Russians to get rid of the “Great” Putin (his modifier, not mine). When the guys with the guns start making fun of your greatness, it may be time to read the writing on the wall.
Zakrevsky must be mad as hell and, more important, he must know that he’s not the only Russian military man who agrees. And why shouldn’t their veins be throbbing? The Great Putin has come close to destroying Mother Russia.
Here’s Zakrevsky’s diatribe against Putin;...
“Our country is not just on the brink of disaster or already right next to it; our country is already in trouble. In big trouble. Drones are flying all over central Russia, right up to Moscow and St. Petersburg. They even attacked the Kremlin. Our Black Sea fleet is being pushed out. It’s being pushed out as if we were not a great power with a great fleet, but some third-rate country. Our air force is practically not working because it is also being pushed out. We are standing in the same positions that we took more than two years ago, and partly in those to which we retreated. The population is dying out, becoming impoverished, drinking itself to death: no one cares. All they have time to do is bring in migrants.”
Zakrevsky minces no words in assigning blame for this sad state of affairs: “And all this was done by the so-called ‘president.’ The ‘Great’ Putin.”
Note that Zakrevsky doesn’t say “I call on you,” but “we call on you.” The plural is presumably a reference to “our union,” Paladin, but it may also be a reference to other military men, whether in the private mercenary companies or the regular armed forces.
Also worth emphasizing is the target audience: the soldiers serving and dying in miserable conditions on the Ukrainian front. Zakrevsky must know that military desertions in 1916 and 1917 led directly to the downfall of the czar and to the Bolsheviks taking power.
Zakrevsky’s outburst was obviously prompted by Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk Province and the shameful incompetence of the Russian army, the intelligence services and their leaders. And Zakrevsky is absolutely correct to realize that the buck stops with Putin. Having made himself the “great” leader, Putin bears responsibility for all that transpires inside Russia. That’s the price of being the dictator — you can’t pass the ruble.
Zakrevsky’s appeal, which has supposedly been distributed widely among Russia’s military and civilian elites, can’t be dismissed as the unrepresentative grumbling of a disgruntled mercenary. Zakrevsky, like Prigozhin before him, represents Russia’s military class. If he’s unhappy and willing to risk his career — and possibly his life — by going public with his call for Putin’s removal, there must be many others who share his discontent. That may be why he hasn’t been arrested or killed — yet.
But does any of this mean anything? Well, Paladin is a much smaller outfit than Wagner was/is, and they are currently deployed to theaters other than Ukraine or anywhere near Russian soil. So it's not like Zakrevsky could decide to replicate Pregozhin's ride to Moscow, even if he was of a mind to. Putin made sure of that after last year's events. But Georgy, in this message, is specifically talking to others in the military and command structures. He's basically advising them that when they didn't back Pregozhin last year, they made a mistake.
And how is Putin responding to all this?
Well,...many observers are asking right now, where the heck is he? Except for a single appearance on TV a little over 2 weeks ago shortly after Ukraine invaded the Kursk area, Putin has been out of sight until suddenly popping up yesterday in Chechnya. Those with skeptical minds might suspect he is there to gauge how well Kadyrov is maintaining his own dictatorship. There are still factions there who would love to break away like they tried to last time, and who would be happy to slit the throats of any Russians or Kadyrovites they could get their hands on. Russia is having troubles enough with the Ukraine war right now. An uprising in Chechnya again would be absolutely ruinous. Such a development would easily be enough for those grumbling about removing Putin to actually attempt it.
All of this is to say that observers are speculating more so than ever before that Putin may be losing his grip on power. Only time will tell. But the timing sucks. Not only is winter coming, which makes fighting in the Kursk and Ukrainian fronts horrendously difficult and worse, but having to deal with whatever the U.S. election drama produces complicates things both there and here.
Things are getting interesting.