Suck My Glock
Member
So you might have heard "rumors" about there being an expected upcoming powder shortage this year (maybe delayed until about this time next year). Vista Outdoors got the ball rolling back in December when they announced to their customers that they were expecting a powder shortage industry-wide. They only mentioned vaguely "supply chain issues", which we have all gotten used to hearing since the pandemic began. And frankly, people kind of tune that reason out when they hear it, because it has become a sort of catch-all excuse to explain away anything. But this was at about the same time as the buyout by CZ Group was announced, and many people wrote off that warning as merely some sort of tactic to justify raising prices in an attempt to cause the powder market to inflate the profits of Vista, since they own Alliant.
But a friend of mine and I were visiting Bruno's yesterday. As we were lazily perusing the stock on hand, we overheard the owner talking to another customer, relaying his conversation with his rep at Hodgdon. Hodgdon had also given the same warning, independent of what Vista Outdoors (Alliant) had said over 3 months ago. But the Hodgdon rep had more details about how/why the shortage was expected. According to that Hodgdon rep, the cellulose used in making the nitrocellulose base of powders comes primarily from Ukraine. The chaff (stalks and straw from the processing of wheat, corn, sunflowers and other agricultural products harvested and processed in Ukraine) resulting as waste product from harvested crops is pound for pound the cheapest cellulose fiber available on the world market. Cheaper than sawdust or other traditional cellulose industrial sources. What little agricultural chaff available for nitrocellulose production still exists is being prioritized for routing to the European/NATO propellant manufacturers still being funded and contracted for the war effort. With Republicans now phuking with the Ukraine support mission, the supply is no longer available to us. U.S. propellant manufacturers have to now domestically source new cellulose suppliers. That isn't difficult;...there is plenty of cellulose to be had right here at home. But it is more expensive.
As of right now,...the prices have not YET risen dramatically. And availability is currently good. But will that last? And what if the shortage and price increases hit right after an election gone bad?
But a friend of mine and I were visiting Bruno's yesterday. As we were lazily perusing the stock on hand, we overheard the owner talking to another customer, relaying his conversation with his rep at Hodgdon. Hodgdon had also given the same warning, independent of what Vista Outdoors (Alliant) had said over 3 months ago. But the Hodgdon rep had more details about how/why the shortage was expected. According to that Hodgdon rep, the cellulose used in making the nitrocellulose base of powders comes primarily from Ukraine. The chaff (stalks and straw from the processing of wheat, corn, sunflowers and other agricultural products harvested and processed in Ukraine) resulting as waste product from harvested crops is pound for pound the cheapest cellulose fiber available on the world market. Cheaper than sawdust or other traditional cellulose industrial sources. What little agricultural chaff available for nitrocellulose production still exists is being prioritized for routing to the European/NATO propellant manufacturers still being funded and contracted for the war effort. With Republicans now phuking with the Ukraine support mission, the supply is no longer available to us. U.S. propellant manufacturers have to now domestically source new cellulose suppliers. That isn't difficult;...there is plenty of cellulose to be had right here at home. But it is more expensive.
As of right now,...the prices have not YET risen dramatically. And availability is currently good. But will that last? And what if the shortage and price increases hit right after an election gone bad?
