Russia/Ukraine update

[Epic_Ed]

Sharing a sitrep, in part, from Forward Observer. Important to acknowledge several major ethnic areas of Ukraine are voting this week to determine if they will join Russia. Whether regarded as a vote for secession or an annexation, if these regions become Russian territories (and it's expected they will) it will change the conflict dynamics and Russia's REOs for protecting these new territories.

"Russia-NATO SITREP

LAVROV: ANNEXED TERRITORIES TO RECEIVE NUCLEAR PROTECTION: Speaking to state-controlled media, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said territories of Ukraine annexed after the referendums would be “unquestionably” under the “full protection of the state.” When questioned about the potential for employment of nuclear weapons in defense of these territories, Lavrov warned that as a territory of Russia, all “laws, doctrines, concepts and strategies” of the Russian government would be applicable. If passed, Russian referendums would seize nearly 15% of Ukraine’s landmass, including territories currently occupied by Ukrainian armed forces. "

 

[Suck My Glock]

It is important to note that the result of the supposed "vote" was predetermined before it was ever put forward. This is all a dog & pony show just like Crimea was. Nobody actually had a say in it. It is just political cover designed to be able to claim Russia is the victim. Nothing else about this matters except that base understanding. And once understood,...proceed exactly as before without change or regard.

 

[mtptwo]

Let's call their bluff and unleash nato on their ass. Get this show over with.

 

[Epic_Ed]

Let's call their bluff and unleash nato on their ass. Get this show over with.

That's certainly the logical escalation path. I don't think Russia fears NATO and probably for good reason. There is no universal existential threat that binds NATO allies together, very few cultural ties, and absolutely no nationalistic foundation that would act as a rallying point. Ultimately, Article 5 may be a bit more fantasy than reality. Will Poland really commit troops if Russia uses tactical nukes? Maybe. But will Germany really back up Poland? And France, Italy, Greece, UK, etc? They may have their hands full with their own crises brought on by the impending energy shortage over the winter.

 

[Suck My Glock]

Russia has blown its wad when it comes to conventional arms. Nuke, biological and chemical is another matter entirely. But as far as being able to invade anyone else, that capability is gone. They can't even properly equip their new draftees.

https://twitter.com/Reevellp/status/1574726637412753408



https://twitter.com/CalibreObscura/status/1573631539434471424?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1573631539434471424%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=

RUSSIAN RIFLE CREED
This is my rusted piece of crap. There are many like it, but this one is mine.
My rusted piece of crap, without me, is useless. Without my rusted piece of crap, I am useless.
Actually, we're pretty useless together, for my rifle is a rusted piece of crap.

 

[Epic_Ed]

I've seen similar. It's possible that these are accurate but also possible that it's psyops. I find it hard to believe either side of the conflict is presenting an accurate assessment. Intel and counter-intel are so much harder to decypher these days. We still don't fully understand Putin's end game. Is it just Ukraine? Maybe. But what happens when NATO gets involved and he feels like he has to respond? Maybe a ground war into eastern Europe isn't feasible but he could still utilize tactical nukes in retaliation.

Regardless, it's going to be a cold and bleak winter in Europe.

 

[Suck My Glock]

I've seen similar. It's possible that these are accurate but also possible that it's psyops. I find it hard to believe either side of the conflict is presenting an accurate assessment. Intel and counter-intel are so much harder to decypher these days. We still don't fully understand Putin's end game. Is it just Ukraine? Maybe. But what happens when NATO gets involved and he feels like he has to respond? Maybe a ground war into eastern Europe isn't feasible but he could still utilize tactical nukes in retaliation.

Regardless, it's going to be a cold and bleak winter in Europe.

My take on it is we aren't going to put boots on the ground, specifically to deny Putin any excuse to (credibly) claim it is NATO troops facing Russia. And as tempted as he might be to use NBC weapons, the problem is that poisons the land he's trying to take, including his own. Any fallout will blow eastward on the Russia's own valuable farmland. Even if we never got off any nukes in reply, its suicide. The current strategy is to keep Russia losing long enough for their own people to whack Putin and then see what negotiations can take place when he's gone. And judging from the way the public is flipping out over the draft, it won't be long. There's already been at least one attempt on his life a few weeks ago, and he's assassinating folks he suspects nearly every week now.

But until then, I almost feel sorry for those draftee lemming bastards who are gonna freeze and starve this winter til they're blown to bits. Almost.

 

[Suck My Glock]

Lyman has been encircled by the Ukrainians, trapping the Russians there. It's about be a royal goat phuc.

 

[Boriqua]

Hard to feel bad for Europe. Trump kicked up a fuss and a half over Nord Stream and everyone said he was crazy. Can we have crazy back please.