How confident are you in Trump being re-elected?
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Pale Rider
Member
About two weeks until the 1st debate. The question is, will the be any debates? Pedo Joe is clearly using a teleprompter to answer scripted and pre-planned questions now. Trump will destroy him when he actually has to talk using his dementia laden brain. I think they'll have no choice but to use some excuse, (blaming Trump for some made up bullshit) for cancelling them.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rBWbSU2vDvc&t=1s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rBWbSU2vDvc&t=1s
Pale Rider
Member
I posted this video of the hag and her retarded looking pedo husband on another thread this morning, and it disappeared along with the thread. I think it's too funny to have it disappeared, so I'm posting it again. Is someone in management protecting that hag? Anyway, she's on the rampage and I can only hope that if Trump wins again; she becomes so enraged that she has a f**king stroke and takes a permanent dirt nap.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nc27FwQGrWU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nc27FwQGrWU
Pale Rider
Member
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m7nwoqKQ_fc
https://news.yahoo.com/trump-91-chance-winning-second-213913320.html
Trump has 91% chance of winning second term, professor’s model predicts
President Donald Trump has a 91 per cent chance of winning the November 2020 election, according to a political science professor who has correctly predicted five out of six elections since 1996.
“The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November,” Stony Brook professor Helmut Norpoth told Mediaite on Tuesday.
Mr Norpoth told the outlet that his model, which he curated in 1996, would have correctly predicted the outcome for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced.
The model calculates the winning candidate based on early presidential nominating contests and placing an emphasis on how much enthusiasm candidates are able to generate early in the nominating process, the professor said.
“The terrain of presidential contests is littered with nominees who saw a poll lead in the spring turn to dust in the fall,” Mr Norpoth said.
If the prediction is correct, former vice president Joe Biden is placed at a severe disadvantage due to losses in his party’s first two presidential nominating contests in Iowa and New Hampshire.
The professor also said the model, which predicted Mr Trump’s election in 2016, worked partially by discounting opinion surveys.
“Polls and poll-based forecasts all handed Hillary Clinton a certain victory,” he said.
However in Mr Norpoth’s model, not only will the president be re-elected, but he will expand his margin in the electoral college from 304 electoral votes in 2016 to 362 in 2020.
The one thing many predictions seem to agree on is that the election could rest crucially on Mr Trump’s leadership of the US through the coronavirus pandemic and mitigating the public health crisis’s impact on the economy in the upcoming months before November.
Trump has 91% chance of winning second term, professor’s model predicts
President Donald Trump has a 91 per cent chance of winning the November 2020 election, according to a political science professor who has correctly predicted five out of six elections since 1996.
“The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November,” Stony Brook professor Helmut Norpoth told Mediaite on Tuesday.
Mr Norpoth told the outlet that his model, which he curated in 1996, would have correctly predicted the outcome for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced.
The model calculates the winning candidate based on early presidential nominating contests and placing an emphasis on how much enthusiasm candidates are able to generate early in the nominating process, the professor said.
“The terrain of presidential contests is littered with nominees who saw a poll lead in the spring turn to dust in the fall,” Mr Norpoth said.
If the prediction is correct, former vice president Joe Biden is placed at a severe disadvantage due to losses in his party’s first two presidential nominating contests in Iowa and New Hampshire.
The professor also said the model, which predicted Mr Trump’s election in 2016, worked partially by discounting opinion surveys.
“Polls and poll-based forecasts all handed Hillary Clinton a certain victory,” he said.
However in Mr Norpoth’s model, not only will the president be re-elected, but he will expand his margin in the electoral college from 304 electoral votes in 2016 to 362 in 2020.
The one thing many predictions seem to agree on is that the election could rest crucially on Mr Trump’s leadership of the US through the coronavirus pandemic and mitigating the public health crisis’s impact on the economy in the upcoming months before November.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/poll-which-correctly-called-2016-election-sees-another-shocking-outcome-november
Poll Which Correctly Called 2016 Election Sees Another "Shocking" Outcome In November
In the following Election Review from Camelot Portfolios, we look at what some of the polling firms that called 2016 correctly are seeing today. "Shocking", their polling suggests that President Trump will be re-elected, either narrowly or by a large margin. Therefore, as Camelot notes, "capital allocators today cannot easily assume next month’s results."
Poll Which Correctly Called 2016 Election Sees Another "Shocking" Outcome In November
In the following Election Review from Camelot Portfolios, we look at what some of the polling firms that called 2016 correctly are seeing today. "Shocking", their polling suggests that President Trump will be re-elected, either narrowly or by a large margin. Therefore, as Camelot notes, "capital allocators today cannot easily assume next month’s results."
be careful with that...it is a felony in Arizona.
Ariz. Stat.
§16-1016
Explicitly prohibits voting in more than one state.
A person is guilty of a class 5 felony who:
3. Knowingly votes in two or more jurisdictions in this state for which residency is required for lawful voting and the person is not a resident of all jurisdictions in which the person voted. For the purposes of this paragraph, a person has only one residence for the purpose of voting.
4. Knowingly votes in this state in an election in which a federal office appears on the ballot and votes in another state in an election in which a federal office appears on the ballot and the election day for both states is the same day.
https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/double-voting.aspx
Ariz. Stat.
§16-1016
Explicitly prohibits voting in more than one state.
A person is guilty of a class 5 felony who:
3. Knowingly votes in two or more jurisdictions in this state for which residency is required for lawful voting and the person is not a resident of all jurisdictions in which the person voted. For the purposes of this paragraph, a person has only one residence for the purpose of voting.
4. Knowingly votes in this state in an election in which a federal office appears on the ballot and votes in another state in an election in which a federal office appears on the ballot and the election day for both states is the same day.
https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/double-voting.aspx
cool arrow said:
Well aware. I actually know how voting works. I’m just not sure the state does. How difficult is it to match up names in a database and avoid sending out multiple ballots to the same person, especially considering I never told anyone my new address.
