When do we monsoon?

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Too soon for the monsoon. It used to be decided by X # of consecutive days when the dew point or humidity (can't remember which) was above Y%, but now it is a fixed date on the calendar, June 15th - Sept 30. I've lived in the Phx area my entire life, 39 years, and I can't ever recall a big monsoon storm in June...they are usually in early August. Plenty of huge dust haboobs in June, but not a lot of rain.

National Weather Service is predicting an above normal rain/monsoon season this year, but a weather prediction months ahead of time doesn't mean shit.

Whatever happens, I do love a huge thunder storm.
 
Generally mid to late August is when the rains and dust storms really start, not just the meteorological definition.
 
Has to do with the equatorial pacific ocean temperatures vs on-land temperatures. Above average ocean temp means more moisture in the air. High on-land temps cause thermals/winds to shift inland, bringing said moisture.

Having said all that. Since as early as I can remember, it was always within a couple weeks after the cicadas would mult and start singing. Always seemed to coincide closely with rise in humidity followed soon thereafter by start of monsoon. Hasn't been as reliable the last couple years, as weather patterns have become more erratic.

The old timers I work with keep on about how we're due to be on the upswing of the 30 year cycle. We'll see...
 
Technically thunderstorm season starts when the dew point reaches 55°
 
My SS Trailblazer is in the body shop for some touch up paint. Surely the hail storms will come the day after I get it home.
 
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