I listened to the arguments today. I think a 6-3 victory striking down the NY law is almost assured, though the breadth of the decision will be interesting to see. As usual, Justice Alito was the best with his questioning, followed by Kavanaugh and the Chief. I was disappointed that Paul Clement (Attorney for the NY Rifle and Pistol Association) for the challengers conceded to Justice Kagan that the government could ban guns on university campuses when they were discussing "sensitive places," and I was also disappointed that he didn't make a stronger push for the Court to always apply "strict scrutiny" to all government regulations that impinge on an individual's 2A rights, but these criticisms might be quibbling. Mr. Clement did a much better job than the government lawyers, especially the NY solicitor general who seemed lost and unable to defend why celebrities and rich people are entitled to self-defense protection but not a nurse who works until midnight and has to traverse high crime areas to get home (to paraphrase Justice Alito's excellent question). The bottom line is that a 6-3 win at some level seems assured.
