The coming powder shortage

[Suck My Glock]

So you might have heard "rumors" about there being an expected upcoming powder shortage this year (maybe delayed until about this time next year). Vista Outdoors got the ball rolling back in December when they announced to their customers that they were expecting a powder shortage industry-wide. They only mentioned vaguely "supply chain issues", which we have all gotten used to hearing since the pandemic began. And frankly, people kind of tune that reason out when they hear it, because it has become a sort of catch-all excuse to explain away anything. But this was at about the same time as the buyout by CZ Group was announced, and many people wrote off that warning as merely some sort of tactic to justify raising prices in an attempt to cause the powder market to inflate the profits of Vista, since they own Alliant.

But a friend of mine and I were visiting Bruno's yesterday. As we were lazily perusing the stock on hand, we overheard the owner talking to another customer, relaying his conversation with his rep at Hodgdon. Hodgdon had also given the same warning, independent of what Vista Outdoors (Alliant) had said over 3 months ago. But the Hodgdon rep had more details about how/why the shortage was expected. According to that Hodgdon rep, the cellulose used in making the nitrocellulose base of powders comes primarily from Ukraine. The chaff (stalks and straw from the processing of wheat, corn, sunflowers and other agricultural products harvested and processed in Ukraine) resulting as waste product from harvested crops is pound for pound the cheapest cellulose fiber available on the world market. Cheaper than sawdust or other traditional cellulose industrial sources. What little agricultural chaff available for nitrocellulose production still exists is being prioritized for routing to the European/NATO propellant manufacturers still being funded and contracted for the war effort. With Republicans now phuking with the Ukraine support mission, the supply is no longer available to us. U.S. propellant manufacturers have to now domestically source new cellulose suppliers. That isn't difficult;...there is plenty of cellulose to be had right here at home. But it is more expensive.

As of right now,...the prices have not YET risen dramatically. And availability is currently good. But will that last? And what if the shortage and price increases hit right after an election gone bad?

[Doc]

Add on Election buying and it’s a real problem.

[leadman1]

Take a look at the Hodgdon website. With the cost of shooting and food I will not be buying any new powders or the latest bullets to try out.

[GunNut]

Every so often a new issue arises
That is planned and as I see it creates the perfect storm to continue increases in ammo years after year
Will never see 22lr at 2 cents per rounds, 9mm $7-8 per 50 rnd box

Buy & store in bulk or get either left behind with none OR can not afford to buy when you do need it

[bill460]

There is already a powder shortage. And prices have gone sky high. With many selling at or over $50.00 a pound. This is going to get a lot worse before any of it gets better..... If it ever does.

The liberals have discovered they can get the results they want with guns, by simply forcing prices on everything involving them into the stratosphere.

They don't have to "ban" guns. All they have to do is price the ammunition and components for making it unaffordable for the masses.

They are also accomplishing this by going after lead. There are many states and counties that require the use of non toxic projectiles. California is expanding on this greatly.

Look at the price of non toxic ammunition. (Zinc .22's, copper centerfire ammo, and all non toxic types of shot). A nationwide ban on lead projectiles would destroy the shooting sports, and the liberal Democrats know it.

They have a much better chance of politically banning lead ammo, than they would the guns that shoot it. Many environmentalists, along with all the other tree and bunny huggers, would vote for that in a minute.

[QuietM4]

The main factor in "shortages" is forum topics exactly like this one. Remember the 22lr shortage? It happened mainly because people read on some forum that there was a shortage (there wasn't), and then they rushed out to buy as much 22lr as they could find. The next guy sees some empty shelves that used to be full last week, and then proceeds to post about how he saw nothing but empty shelves. Rinse and repeat the cycle thousands of times over, and guess what? Now there really is a shortage, needlessly.

[Suck My Glock]

I'll have to disagree with you on that one QuietM4. These many years afterwards, it is pretty clear now why the .22 shortage happened, and what ended it. The ammo makers didn't want to have to spend on expensive new manufacturing infrastructure, so they dragged their feet, hoping the shortage would eventually peter out. It ended when they realized that wasn't going to work and the spent the f@&king money to increase capacity. Period. End of story.

And the answer to any shortage is never to "shut the f@&k up and not talk about fight club". It is always best to state things as they are and not as we wish them to be.

Fortunately, the cellulose supply here domestically exists independent of the pre-existing supply used in the past, so this can be overcome and is merely an interruption. This is a symptom of the end of globalization in commodities markets and a return to the pre-cold-war regional sourcing of things.