The Whole Ammo and Components Shortage Thing

[Old Jeff H]

A couple of things that Jason Vanderbrink said in this most recent video have had me thinking.

He mentions the demand for hunting ammo several times. How much centerfire rifle ammo does a typical hunter go through in a year? A box or two per caliber, maybe? He doesn't even mention the REAL high demand calibers?

He was quite frank when it comes to primers. All of theirs are being consumed in-house. I'm assuming that includes CCI, Federal, and Remington - which leaves only Winchester and imports as possibilities for the reloading folks. Where are the other ammunition manufactures (Hornady, etc) getting their primers? Are primers even currently being imported?

Powder - I have in-stock notifications set, and check the suppliers daily. NOTHING. I'm going to assume that 100% of whatever the suppliers currently receive is going toward fulfilling backorders, and it's probably going to be that way for a while.

Bullets - Up until about a week or two ago, even the highest demand stuff was somewhat available. I've been watching them gradually dry up with the suppliers that I check daily.

Brass - Still plenty out there.

Ammo - Seems like a repeat of 2008/2013. If you're able and willing to stand outside of stores before they open, you can probably get what you want. Eventually.

What's my point with all of this? I dunno. Fortunately I learned from the last shortages and have everything I need (except Longshot! Thought I had a keg, but no joy). Just more or less thinking out loud and curious about other's opinions/speculation on the matter.

[Boriqua]

Our new president has already gone on record as saying the "pandemic" will proceed as previously forecast and all his campaign rhetoric it seems may have been just that and there is indeed little he can do to change things.

His promise of a 1.9 trillion relief bill and $2000 direct payments is already inz jeapordy.

Soon as people start to realize he doesn't have the pull he thought he might and much of his hot air was just that .. I think people stop freaking out and buying like it's going away. Should happen pretty soon I think and certainly would have ended if we got georgia.

Obama and biden ... Best damn gun salesmen ever!

[Flash]

I think that sooner or later everyone is going to have whatever they consider to be enough ammo and/or components and things will drift back to normal.

I think that around 6 months or so from now it'll be normal....but I wouldn't bet the house on it.

[QuietM4]

It took nearly 2 years for the 22lr shortage to get back to normal...and then COVID hit. If you weren't buying cheap and stacking deep, your are in for a bit of a dry spell.

[mikeh]

I was just talking with my son about the shortage and how any stores that have ammo in stock are jacking the prices up significantly. I saw on CheaperThanDirt .556 green tip going for $1.74/round. Glad I picked up my supply when the price was relatively reasonable.

[Suck My Glock]

Dick Durban is Biden's point man on gun control and has said they are going to make gun control their main domestic agenda (aside from Covid). If they indeed follow through on that,...the panic they will induce will serve to keep everything in short supply for the entirety of his administration. Until and unless the primer and powder manufacturers start building out new infrastructure to be able to produce more than the current capacity, nothing will change. That's what ended the .22 supply drought and it is what will HAVE to happen here. But so far, I do not see the manufacturers doing that. They are going to try to ride this out with the capacity they have on hand. Not until their customer base gets upset at them again like the last time around, they will not expand beyond current production.

[Old Jeff H]

I don't think the manufacturer's are going to invest in anything other than possibly additional labor shifts. My guess is one way or another, demand is going to go way down in 2-4 years.

I think major price increases are going to be their solution. The only reason that bothers me is they never lower their prices once they've increase them. $60/K for primers, $250/keg for powder, and $250/K for jacketed bullets is what I expect we'll be paying from here on.

Then again, I guess 9mm did make it all they way back down to $200/K for a while I could also be totally wrong.

[Suck My Glock]

The heavy taxes Biden intends on all things gun-related will keep prices elevated regardless of how things might calm down.

[samnev]

The heavy taxes Biden intends on all things gun-related will keep prices elevated regardless of how things might calm down.

I agree, that and the hoarding going on wont stop as long as the Dems control all 3 branches of the government.

[mtptwo]

It is pretty much being eaten up by consumer demand. 1 billion rounds divided by 5 million new shooters is only 200 rounds per shooter. Add in all of the previous shooters and we end up having very little of overly expensive ammo.

[Flash]

It is pretty much being eaten up by consumer demand. 1 billion rounds divided by 5 million new shooters is only 200 rounds per shooter. Add in all of the previous shooters and we end up having very little of overly expensive ammo.

And then there are the new shooters who decide they like to shoot and want to do so on a regular basis. A guy and his wife have been casually shooting with my group for around 6 months, they started with guns in February of last year, and they said that at this point they've purchased 10,000 rounds of ammunition, so not all new shooters are only buying a couple hundred rounds.

[lostdog99]

My speculation is that there will be no "new" infrastructure to manufacture primers. At least not in the "near future".

My reasoning: the entity I work for considered making primers. The compounds in the primer mix are only "mostly stable" when they are wet. Thus they cannot be shipped readily and the whole primer must be manufactured "in house". Those who manufacture primers currently prime their cases while the mix is still mostly stable. If/when they do ship out any extra they seat the primer anvil only partially seated to avoid ignition in shipment.
Years back there were ignitions in shippment and mfg. New regulations were put in place that make it almost unprofitable to start up a new primer mfg plant.
This shortage . .and as a result increased prices . . May be what is needed to stimulate a new process/facilities to be created. But there will be growing pains. Initially the primers on the new process will be likely less consistent till engineers can solve problems. And there will likely be plant explosions . .with the usual consequences.

If anybody has primer manufacturing experience peer review is welcome.

[RufusXG]

IF it ever comes back to "normal", it will take at least a couple years IMO. 2020 was the hint that almost no one is going to ignore this time, a lot more folks are going to try to accumulate their "lifetime supply". That and the ammo companies hesitance to increase capacity, there's no painless way out.

[Pscipio03]

I’ve actually had no problems with powder- Varget for rifle and Bullseye for pistol.
Both times I’ve picked some up I’ve left plenty on the shelf for the next guy.
Bullets- just had my order for Bayou 200 gr LSWC (2,200 count) get delivered on Thursday- ordered it in Sept.
Brass- only find it at the range when people leave it.
Primers- I’ve been able to find smart liberals in larger supply than primers. Luckily I overbought the previous 2 years and have.. enough I hope.
This one is gonna be longer lasting than the 2008 or 2012 shortages. Much longer. If things return to normal before 2023 I’ll be supremely, and happily, surprised.
I could see a large federal order for 5.56 and 9mm suddenly hit as things calm down.
I could see import laws be passed that restrict foreign components like powder.
Just a whole bunch of things that Sleepy Joe and Cameltoe will try to keep us without ammo.